How Are Coca and Cocaine Measured? Implications for Drug Policy

Amid the recent debate over data from UNODC’s Integrated Illicit Crop Monitoring System (SIMCI) and the political tensions surrounding drug policy in Colombia, this document explains the main technical and policy elements behind estimates of coca cultivation and potential cocaine production. Drawing on a review of SIMCI’s methodology, it describes the processes by which cultivated hectares are estimated from satellite imagery, as well as the calculations used to approximate potential cocaine production based on productive area, leaf yields, and conversion factors across the different stages of processing.

The document notes that, while these methodologies allow for an approximation of an illegal market that is inherently difficult to measure, their results are subject to assumptions and margins of error that must be acknowledged in public debate. In this regard, it cautions that potential cocaine production should not be interpreted as an exact figure or as a direct measure of the cocaine actually produced or available on the market.

Finally, the document argues that, although the monitoring system has room for improvement, eliminating it without a credible alternative would undermine the capacity to understand the coca economy. Beyond refining existing measurements, it proposes broadening the set of indicators used to evaluate drug policy, incorporating metrics related to territorial development, violence, and the weakening of criminal organizations.